“Books Will Be Written” About This Shipping Market | Ed Finley-Richardson of Misadventures in Shipping on War-Induced Oil Tanker Mayhem, Squeeze for Asiabound Refined Products, and Persian Gulf “Feeding Frenzy” Scenario
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Small product tankers are now earning $300,000 per day—10 times normal rates—because a war-induced closure of the Strait of Hormuz has rerouted global refined product flows from the U.S. Gulf to Asia, turning once-uneconomical voyages into the most profitable shipping trades in decades. This isn’t just a temporary war trade; it’s a structural shift fueled by a secretive Korean billionaire who owns 150 of the world’s 900 VLCCs, creating artificial scarcity and driving up rates before the conflict even escalated. The result is a self-reinforcing cycle where soaring spot rates inflate charter values, which in turn attract capital, fueling new orders and future overcapacity—yet the current market remains deeply dislocated, with the most profitable companies not being the largest, but those strategically positioned in the U.S. Gulf, like TORM and International Seaways. Meanwhile, Greek-owned firms are being avoided due to governance risks, including opaque structures and related-party deals, while real-time vessel tracking and private data feeds have become essential tools for spotting opportunities before the market catches on. This era of shipping, driven by physical supply chain chaos, is so extreme that books will be written about it—marking a rare moment when intelligence, not just capital, defines winners.
Small product tankers (MRs) are earning $300,000/day due to war-driven rerouting of U.S. Gulf-to-Asia refined product shipments.
A secretive Korean billionaire owns 150 VLCCs—17% of the global fleet—creating artificial scarcity and inflating rates before the war.
The most profitable shipping companies are those with fleets strategically positioned in the U.S. Gulf, not just by size or type.
Buy pessimism: shipping stocks offer the best upside when valuations look awful and earnings are poor, signaling overpriced fear.
Iranian oil returning to global markets could trigger a 'feeding frenzy' of crude exports, causing congestion and outsized profits.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
The Strait of Hormuz Closure and Global Shipping Shock
“The Far East is not able to produce its own refined products, so it has to source them from farther away. And they're just endless knock-on effects. So all of that's playing out in shipping.”
The Rise of the MR Tanker: Small Ships, Huge Profits
“I've also seen this in handy size vessels in the Mediterranean. So these are voyages, which can be quite short going from say North Africa to the Mediterranean basin. So it might be Italy or France and in four or five days, these vessels can be making $300,000 a day.”
The Sinecor Effect: A Secretive Market Corner
“He made an offer to them about 20% above the par value at that time. So an offer that was very difficult to refuse. A lot of owners accepted and sold even multiple ships.”
Why VLCCs Are Stranded While MRs Thrive
VLCCs are idle because Middle Eastern crude exports are blocked, while MRs are thriving due to new, long-haul trade routes. The imbalance is so extreme that some VLCCs are now ballasting around Africa, heading west in anticipation of future demand.
The Atlantic Basin Surge: A New Market Imbalance
The Atlantic Basin is now earning 3x more than the Pacific Basin, a rare and persistent imbalance. This has led to a flood of vessels moving west, but the trend is self-sustaining due to high rates and strategic positioning.
“Books will be written about how profitable the shipping industry is right now when it comes to tankers.”
“I've also seen this in handy size vessels in the Mediterranean. So these are voyages, which can be quite short going from say North Africa to the Mediterranean basin. So it might be Italy or France and in four or five days, these vessels can be making $300 ,000 a”
“the worst case scenario is for the tinkers and for the macroeconomy is if we have this kind of almost full closure which becomes semi -permanent. That's a”
Host
Guest
Ed Finley-Richardson
person
Jack Farley
person
Frontline
organization
International Seaways
organization
Strait of Hormuz
other
Substack
other
Iran
place
DHT Holdings
organization
China
place
CMB Tech
organization
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