"I Don't Believe the Stagflation Narrative": How the Strong Consumer and AI Tailwinds Shape Sean Emory's Bullish Blueprint | Avory & Co

Sean Emery, CIO of Avery & Co, challenges the dominant stagflation narrative, arguing that strong consumer spending, AI-driven productivity gains, and structural shifts in the economy are misinterpreted as economic weakness. He contends that today's energy prices are psychologically impactful but financially negligible—gas now represents just 1%–2% of household income, far below the 7%–10% seen in the 1970s. Instead of stagflation, Emery sees a K-shaped economy in a state of post-COVID normalization, where affluent consumers are driving demand while lower-income households benefited disproportionately from tax refunds and stimulus. He believes AI is not a job killer but a productivity amplifier that creates new roles—especially in oversight and integration—leading to net job growth. Emery’s investment strategy focuses on 'small but powerful' companies with durable competitive advantages, such as OmniCell’s 10-year capital cycle in hospital automation and Zillow’s transformation into a multi-revenue super-app. He warns that AI-driven investing is creating a dangerous echo chamber of identical trades, but sees long-term opportunity in companies that are refocused, cash-rich, and operating at the intersection of AI, consumer strength, and structural tailwinds.