Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

Susquehanna International Group is betting big on prediction markets not as a novelty, but as a serious institutional tool for risk management and price discovery. In a candid conversation with Jeremy Mallitz, head of prediction markets at Susquehanna, the podcast unpacks how a firm traditionally known for options trading is now acting as a market-making backbone for everything from sports bets to geopolitical events and even corporate hedging instruments like snowfall forecasts. Mallitz argues that the real value isn’t in volume, but in the quality of information generated by superforecasters—enough to justify tens of millions in risk-taking even on low-volume contracts. He dismisses concerns about insider trading and market manipulation, noting that regulated platforms and blockchain transparency make fraud harder than ever. The episode reveals a pivotal shift: prediction markets are no longer just for gamblers. They’re becoming a financial infrastructure layer, especially for fast-moving risks like AI compute or supply chain shocks—where speed to market can mean the difference between hedging a risk and being blindsided by it.