TWF 146 - Hey Baty! w/ Josh Shaw
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In this episode of Pitcher List Fantasy Baseball, host Jon Kuhn welcomes guest Josh Shaw to discuss his latest 'Patience or Panic' article, which dives deep into the struggles of three high-profile players: Rafael Devers, Jaron Duran, and Brett Baty. Shaw argues that while Devers and Duran are experiencing severe statistical downturns—marked by plummeting walk rates, poor contact quality, and declining exit velocities—their issues may stem from mental, mechanical, and team-wide factors beyond simple regression. Devers, now in San Francisco, is struggling with pitch recognition, especially against breaking balls, while Duran’s inability to hit fastballs suggests a mechanical breakdown. Both players, Shaw notes, are playing in dysfunctional environments with inexperienced coaching staffs and stagnant lineups. In contrast, Brett Baty—once a fringe fantasy asset—has shown signs of a comeback after a brutal start, including a three-run homer and increased patience at the plate. Shaw advocates for patience with Baty, citing his return to a disciplined approach and his ability to thrive in a role that doesn’t demand superstar production. The episode also covers injury updates, player performances, and a strong streamer lineup featuring Jack Kachanowicz, Connor Prelip, Carmen Majinski, and Peter Lambert—highlighting their low ownership and favorable matchups as ideal late-round pickups.
Rafael Devers' 6% walk rate and 70.7 mph bat speed on breaking balls signal a deeper mechanical and mental breakdown, not just a slump.
Jaron Duran’s 125 average and 85.5 mph exit velocity against fastballs indicate a severe mechanical shift that may require a full swing overhaul.
Brett Baty’s recent three-run homer and return to patient plate discipline suggest a reversion to his 2025 form, making him a high-reward patience play.
The Mets’ entire offense is struggling due to inexperience in the dugout and lack of leadership, not just individual player failure.
Jack Kachanowicz, Connor Prelip, Carmen Majinski, and Peter Lambert are low-ownership pitchers with strong matchups and recent quality starts.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Welcome & Context: Mets' Win & the 'Patience or Panic' Framework
Jon Kuhn welcomes Josh Shaw to discuss his latest 'Patience or Panic' article, setting the stage with a lighthearted debrief of a Mets win over the Twins. Shaw shares his emotional investment as a Mets fan and introduces the episode's focus: evaluating three struggling stars—Devers, Duran, and Baty—through the lens of patience versus panic.
Rafael Devers: The Collapse of a Power Hitter
“He's just not seeing the ball. He's not approaching breakers very well either. So it just feels like... Hey, someone kind of figured out that there's a way that you can attack him right now.”
Jaron Duran: The Fastball Breakdown
“He's just late on almost everything. I'm curious if there's been any changes with his swing length at all... It seems really significant to have this much of a change in a season-to-season basis.”
Brett Baty: From Struggles to Comeback
“It almost feels like he's been on a milk carton and I've been like, where'd he go? And then I'm like, Oh, there he is. That's great baby. I know that guy.”
Team Context: The Mets’ Identity Crisis
Shaw emphasizes that Devers and Duran aren’t isolated failures—San Francisco and Boston are both plagued by inexperience in the dugout, poor offensive identity, and lack of leadership. The Mets’ clubhouse, under a first-year manager, is particularly unstable.
“ball. He's not, like you mentioned, he's not approaching breakers very well either. So it just feels like... Hey, someone kind of figured out that there's a way that you can attack him right now.”
“It almost feels like he's been on a milk carton and I've been like, where'd he go? And then I'm like, Oh, there he is. That's great baby. I know that guy.”
“I hate to just be a broken record, but they look so remarkably different. And when you have a situation like we have tonight where the Mets are getting a rally going, they were down 1 -0, their starter Christian Scott”
Host
Guest
Rafael Devers
person
Brett Baty
person
Jaron Duran
person
New York Mets
other
San Francisco Giants
other
Boston Red Sox
other
Jon Kuhn
person
Josh Shaw
person
Tony Vitello
person
Oracle Park
other
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