WAF 211 - K-BB% Standouts with Dan Weber
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In this high-impact episode of Pitcher List Fantasy Baseball, Steve Giswelli and guest Dan Weber dive deep into early-season pitcher performance using strikeout minus walk (K-BB) rate—a metric they argue is the most predictive early indicator of long-term success. The conversation centers on pitchers who are defying expectations by drastically improving their K-BB rates, with Cam Schlitler leading the pack at 31.4%, a rate so dominant it's nearly unprecedented. Dan Weber, a longtime fantasy baseball analyst and MLB sales executive, brings insider knowledge on pitching development, especially from elite organizations like the Yankees and Mariners. The episode highlights breakout performers like Jacob Mizorowski, whose slider and curveball have sharpened dramatically, and Shota Imanaga, whose bounce-back season is fueled by a renewed splitter and crafty pitch sequencing. A standout segment features Chase DeLander, a Rockies rookie with 99 mph fastballs and 15 swing-and-miss pitches in one outing, whose potential is amplified by Colorado’s new analytics-driven front office. The show also spotlights under-the-radar sleepers like Will Warren and Jack Leiter, whose refined command and pitch mix suggest mid-rotation upside. The episode closes with a fun mystery reveal: Mike Soroka, returning from injury with elite strikeout upside and a 12th-place K-BB ranking despite limited innings. The takeaway?
Strikeout minus walk rate is the most predictive early-season pitcher metric, surpassing ERA, FIP, and even stuff metrics.
Cam Schlitler’s 31.4% K-BB rate is historically dominant, driven by a 34% strikeout rate and just 2.9% walk rate.
Jacob Mizorowski’s slider and curveball have improved dramatically, with exit velocity and hard-hit rates down 50%+ on both pitches.
Chase DeLander’s 99 mph fastball and 15 swing-and-miss performance show elite stuff, with Rockies’ new analytics-driven front office enabling his development.
Mike Soroka’s return from injury is fueled by a lowered arm angle, new cutter, and improved curveball swing-and-miss rate (25%)—making him a high-upside streamer.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Welcome & Episode Purpose
Steve Giswelli introduces the episode, explaining the shift from hitter metrics to pitcher metrics, specifically focusing on early-stabilizing K-BB rate. He welcomes Dan Weber as a special guest and sets the stage for a deep dive into breakout pitchers.
K-BB as the Ultimate Predictor
Steve emphasizes strikeout minus walk rate as the most powerful early-season pitcher metric, explaining why it’s more predictive than ERA or underlying stats. Dan Weber agrees, noting that by five or six starts, K-BB becomes the best indicator of long-term performance.
Cam Schlitler: The 31.4% K-BB Phenom
“A 31% strikeout minus walk rate is insane. And that’s because he’s only walking 2.9% of the guys that he’s seeing while striking out 34% of the guys.”
Jacob Mizorowski: The Ace-in-the-Making
“His slider has really sharpened out. Last year, hitters were at 293 against it with a 530 slug. This year, they're hitting 136 against it and a 318 slug.”
Shota Imanaga: The Comeback Kid
Imanaga’s 24.1% K-BB rate signals a bounce-back season. Despite a high home run rate, his improved splitter, crafty pitch sequencing, and weak contact are making him a reliable fantasy starter, especially at Wrigley.
“He’s throwing the sinker to get balls and play. From their base side to lefties, and it’s just never coming in the zone, and guys are swinging at it and not getting any contact on it.”
“He's averaged 99 miles an hour. on those. And he averaged 99 miles an hour on Tuesday, last night against the Padres when he came in. And he had six that were over 100 miles an hour.”
“he's lowered his arm angle from 33 degrees to 28 degrees. His fastball is seeing less induced vertical break, which isn't great. And he's getting kind of crushed by lefties. But he's added”
Host
Guest
Dan Weber
person
Steve Giswelli
person
New York Yankees
organization
Cam Schlitler
person
Jacob Mizorowski
person
Shota Imanaga
person
Jesus Lizardo
person
Milwaukee Brewers
organization
Chicago Cubs
organization
Reed Detmers
person
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