Why Flat VIX Could be Bullish: Stocks Near Highs & Reacting to ARM, FTNT, DDOG Earnings

Despite the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs and markets showing signs of broadening momentum, Kevin Green warns that flat VIX levels may be a hidden bullish signal—suggesting aggressive call buying or hedging activity rather than fear. He argues that the market’s technical strength, with 65% of S&P 500 stocks in the green and equal-weight index also making new highs, could sustain gains, especially as sectors like industrials, materials, and cybersecurity gain traction. The rally in Fortinet and DataDog—driven by strong AI-related demand and upgraded guidance—reinforces a shift in enterprise spending toward cybersecurity, countering earlier fears of AI-driven budget reallocation to hardware. Meanwhile, ARM’s solid earnings were overshadowed by supply chain constraints and lack of pricing power, leading to a modest pullback despite strong AI chip demand. Oil remains volatile, with WTI near $91, but Green cautions that a peace deal in the Middle East may not trigger a sharp drop in prices due to structural supply shortages, potentially leaving room for WTI to test $120. The market’s current support at 7310–7315 and resistance at 7400 highlight key technical levels to watch. The episode reveals a critical insight: flat volatility amid rising markets isn’t a sign of complacency but could reflect sophisticated positioning—either aggressive bullish bets or defensive hedges—making the current rally more resilient than it appears.