"The China Debate We're Not Having" | Part 2: What Does the United States Want?

This episode of the Sinica Podcast, part two of 'The China Debate We're Not Having,' features a panel discussion from the Institute for America, China and the Future of Global Affairs conference at Johns Hopkins SAIS. Moderated by Dean Jim Steinberg, the panel—featuring Matt Duss, Catherine Thompson, Jonas Nam, and Leslie Vindjimuri—examines a central question: What does the United States want from its relationship with China? The conversation reveals a profound strategic confusion within U.S. foreign policy, with no coherent grand strategy emerging from either the Trump or Biden administrations. The panelists argue that the bipartisan consensus on China as a 'pacing threat' has led to overcommitment in the Indo-Pacific, neglecting tradeoffs with other global priorities like Ukraine and Iran. They highlight growing public favorability toward China in the U.S., especially among Democrats, driven more by the absence of anti-China rhetoric than by policy shifts. On economic issues, panelists suggest reframing U.S.-China competition around specific domestic challenges—affordability, energy, and technological catch-up—rather than broad ideological confrontation. On security, they emphasize the need for allies to shoulder more defense burdens and explore a more restrained U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific. The discussion concludes with a warning against letting the U.S.-China relationship become a proxy in domestic culture wars, stressing that external realities—like the war in Ukraine and Middle East dynamics—will shape policy more than Washington’s internal debates. Key takeaways include: 1) The U.S. lacks a unified grand strategy toward China, leading to inconsistent policy; 2) Public opinion is shifting positively toward China, especially among Democrats, due to reduced anti-China rhetoric; 3) Economic engagement with China should focus on solving specific U.S. problems like affordability and energy, not broad competition; 4) The U.S. must rebalance alliances and reduce its military footprint in the Indo-Pacific to avoid escalation; 5) Human rights and democracy promotion have lost credibility due to U.S. hypocrisy and should be approached with greater nuance; 6) The U.S. must avoid letting foreign policy become a domestic political football; 7) External factors—war in Ukraine, Middle East tensions—will increasingly shape U.S.-China policy more than internal debates; 8) A new consensus may emerge not from elections but from evolving global realities.