JF 4230: Ground Leases, Deal Discipline and CRE Longevity ft. John McNellis
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In this episode of The Best Ever CRE Show, host Amanda Cruz welcomes real estate veteran John McNellis, a developer with over 40 years of experience and author of the newly released third edition of 'Making It in Real Estate.' McNellis shares hard-earned wisdom on deal discipline, longevity in real estate, and the importance of staying within one's 'weight class'—a philosophy that emphasizes sustainable growth over aggressive scaling. He recounts his most significant failure, the Birdcage Walk Shopping Center deal, which nearly bankrupted him due to over-leverage and poor market timing during the 1980s S&L crisis. Despite this, he advocates for strategic risk-taking within a defined niche, particularly in neighborhood retail centers anchored by strong tenants like Chick-fil-A and Walmart. He also critiques the overreliance on IRR as a metric, promotes the use of 'Net to Me' for personal ROI clarity, and champions ground leases as a low-risk, high-reward strategy. McNellis advises new investors to start small—buying and renovating a single-family home in a high-supply-constraint area—before scaling into larger commercial deals. He remains skeptical of national expansion, emphasizing that life and family matter more than endless wealth accumulation.
Stay within your 'weight class'—don't scale too fast; sustainable growth beats aggressive expansion.
Ground leases with strong tenants like Chick-fil-A offer predictable 7%+ returns and high resale value at 4%-4.5% cap rates.
Avoid IRR as a performance metric—it's based on speculative future sale prices and can mislead investors.
Use 'Net to Me' to calculate your personal return before committing to a deal—account for time, effort, and partner splits.
Start with a fixer-upper in a high-supply-constraint neighborhood—this is 'CRE with training wheels.'
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
The Investor Acquisition Problem
The episode opens with a sponsor message highlighting M1 Real Capital’s free book, 'Unlimited Investor Leads,' which addresses the systemic issue of attracting investors rather than chasing them.
Lennar Investor Marketplace: Simplifying New Construction Investing
Sponsor segment promoting Lennar Investor Marketplace, a data-rich platform for investing in rental-ready new construction homes with built-in underwriting tools and pre-negotiated financing.
John McNellis: A Developer’s Legacy of Wisdom and Failure
“If you can figure out where you're comfortable and maybe it's 100 unit apartment buildings, maybe it's strip centers or small hotels, if they are roughly the same size... you're doing great.”
Why McNellis Avoided Multifamily and Chose Retail
“Retail isn't dead. Amazon is just... like the Union Pacific and the Northern Pacific Railroads meeting in the middle of the country.”
The Power of Ground Leases and Strategic Niche Focus
“If you can buy them to a decent spread over what you're going to sell them at, those still make sense.”
“I had a negative basis of three or four million dollars. And so when we gave it back to the bank, boys and girls, then the IRS says, OK. You didn't get any money, but guess what? You don't have a $4 million gain.”
“Retail isn't dead. Amazon is just... like the Union Pacific and the Northern Pacific Railroads meeting in the middle of the country.”
“Supply constraint. That's magic. Build somewhere where the town thinks that the developers ought to be run out on a pole and where there isn't going to be anymore.”
Hosts
Guest
John McNellis
person
Amanda Cruz
person
Ash Patel
person
Chick-fil-A
brand
CMBS
other
Walmart
brand
Birdcage Walk Shopping Center
other
1031 Exchange
other
Lennar Investor Marketplace
brand
San Francisco Peninsula
place
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