JF 4231: Economic trends, Market conditions, and Investment Opportunities in 2026 ft. John Chang

In this special 'Looking Back, Looking Forward' episode of The Best Ever CRE Show, host Matt Jackson is joined by economist and Marcus Milichap contributor John Chang to analyze the economic landscape of April 2026 and project investment opportunities into 2026 and beyond. The discussion centers on the ongoing Middle East conflict and its ripple effects on global supply chains, inflation, and interest rates. Chang emphasizes that while the war has created significant uncertainty, the market has already absorbed much of the shock—oil prices remain elevated not due to current shortages but due to persistent uncertainty, and interest rate volatility has stabilized. He argues that the U.S. economy is resilient, with underlying fundamentals strong enough to support a recovery, especially as we approach a potential post-recession growth cycle. Chang remains bullish on real estate, particularly commercial property, which he believes is in a 'good pole position' after a correction, with favorable cap rates, reduced competition, and strong long-term demand drivers. Chang identifies several high-potential asset classes for 2026: office (especially Class A and B/C properties benefiting from a return-to-office trend), multifamily (in markets with low vacancy and limited new supply), and triple net retail (particularly unanchored or small-anchored centers where value creation is possible through re-tenancy). He cautions against self-storage due to weak migration and tight consumer budgets, though notes a counter-trend from young adults moving in with family. On markets, Chang highlights long-term growth bets like Austin, Phoenix, and Dallas; turnaround markets such as the Bay Area; resilient markets like Salt Lake City; and oil-driven growth in Houston. His dark horse pick is San Antonio, contingent on the renewal of the USMCA trade agreement, which could boost manufacturing and logistics. Overall, the episode delivers a data-driven, contrarian outlook: volatility is baked in, but opportunity lies in disciplined, long-term investing in overlooked markets and asset types.