Arash Azizi and Jodi Kantor: Iran Has the Leverage

In this episode of The Bulwark, host Tim Miller welcomes Arash Azizi, a historian and lecturer at Yale, to discuss the current geopolitical standoff between the U.S. and Iran. Azizi provides a nuanced analysis of the ongoing crisis, emphasizing that while both sides have engaged in brinkmanship—marked by the brief and failed 'Project Freedom' operation and conflicting claims about negotiations—neither is eager to return to full-scale war. Despite Iran's aggressive posturing, including the creation of a Persian Gulf Strait Authority requiring tolls and permits for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Azizi argues that Iran’s leverage lies not in immediate military dominance but in its ability to disrupt global energy markets and exploit U.S. political hesitancy toward another Middle East conflict. He challenges the narrative of imminent Iranian collapse, noting that Iran’s economy, while severely strained with over a million jobs lost, remains resilient due to its size, borders, and resourcefulness. Azizi warns against oversimplified predictions of regime collapse, stressing that state survival is complex and unpredictable, especially when governed by non-democratic systems with deep institutional capacity. The episode underscores the importance of understanding Iran’s strategic patience and the limits of coercive diplomacy.