Receipts Live: Catherine Rampell & JVL on Oil Price Spikes, Awful Inflation, Record Debt

In this episode of The Bulwark, JVL and Catherine Rampell dissect the sharp spike in U.S. gas prices amid the ongoing war with Iran, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted global oil supply chains. They analyze the economic fallout, emphasizing that despite rhetoric about 'drill baby drill' and energy independence under Trump, oil rig counts remain stagnant—lower than a year ago and unchanged since the war began. The hosts argue that the real driver of high prices is not corporate greed, as often claimed by politicians, but a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand caused by the war. They critique the political narrative that blames oil companies, noting that such scapegoating distracts from the president’s role in escalating the conflict. Despite the limited power presidents typically have over global commodity markets, the episode makes the rare case that Trump’s decision to wage war has directly caused the energy crisis, making voters’ blame politically justified. The discussion also touches on inflation data, political messaging from Republicans, and the long-term market risk of a closed Strait of Hormuz, even if peace is eventually restored.