Trump Says The Strait Is “Open.” So Why Isn’t Anyone Moving? (w/ Sal Mercogliano)

In this episode of The Bulwark, host Andrew Egger sits down with maritime expert Sal Mercogliano to dissect the shaky reality behind Donald Trump's announced ceasefire with Iran and its impact on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite official declarations that the strait is 'open,' Mercogliano reveals that actual maritime activity has seen little to no change—ships remain stuck, and there's no surge in traffic. Instead, only Iranian-linked vessels are moving through the so-called 'toll booth' area within Iranian territorial waters, while others wait for concrete assurances. The episode highlights the legal and geopolitical contradictions: Iran’s claim to control the strait violates the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and Trump’s surprising suggestion of a joint U.S.-Iran toll system raises alarm about the erosion of freedom of navigation. Markets reacted with temporary relief, but Mercogliano warns that the damage to global supply chains—especially in oil, fertilizers, and electronics—is already severe and will take months to reverse. The episode underscores a growing gap between political messaging and on-the-ground reality. Key takeaways include: 1) The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed despite official statements; 2) The U.S. is not enforcing open passage, and its silence on Iran’s territorial claims is a strategic risk; 3) The Trump administration’s timeline focuses on short-term fixes, not long-term supply chain recovery; 4) The economic fallout will be phased, with impacts in agriculture, manufacturing, and logistics unfolding over months; 5) Iran’s control of the strait via informal 'toll' agreements with countries like China and France undermines international law. The episode concludes with a sobering assessment: while markets may be calming, the structural damage to global trade is already done.