Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe on the 6 Standard Deviation Tech Event, How SpaceX Will Tell Us if It’s 1997 or 1999

The SpaceX IPO isn't just a financial event—it's a historical litmus test for whether we're in a 1997, 1998, or 1999-style tech bubble. Nick Colas argues that the $135/share fixed price, lack of traditional book-building, and retail-driven price discovery mean the market will determine valuation on Day 1, not through institutional negotiation. He sets a critical benchmark: if SpaceX closes above $166, it’s a 1998-like rally; above $310, it’s a full-blown 1999 bubble. The episode dissects the absurdity of comparing today’s market to the dot-com era—not because tech is overvalued, but because the volatility and momentum-driven surges of 1999 (84% in six months, 34% drop in five weeks) are absent today. The NASDAQ hasn’t seen anything close to that kind of explosive rally, and the fundamentals—especially with AI-driven growth—are fundamentally different. Still, the sheer scale of retail demand, shortened lockups, and index inclusion could trigger market structure issues, echoing the Facebook IPO chaos in 2012. The real takeaway? Don’t watch the price; watch the *pattern*—a 50% surge followed by a 30% crash is the true bubble signal, not just a hot IPO. The discussion also reveals a deeper truth: Elon Musk’s companies are not just businesses but layered bets on his vision. Tesla is a near-dated Musk option—dependent on robotaxi success in 24–36 months—while SpaceX is a long-dated version, betting on interplanetary infrastructure.