How Iran's Regime Changed...for the Worse

The Journal examines the unintended consequences of U.S. and Israeli military actions targeting Iran's leadership, which were intended to trigger regime change. Instead of collapsing, Iran's political system has hardened under a new generation of extreme hardliners. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei led to the unexpected rise of his son, Mushtaba Khamenei, who remains largely unseen but is believed to be ideologically aligned with the most radical elements of the Revolutionary Guard. Key figures like Mohammad Bagher Zulkhadra and Ahmad Vahidi—both with violent pasts and extremist credentials—have taken control of critical security and military roles. This shift has deepened Iran's apocalyptic military ideology rooted in Shia Mahdism, where war is seen as a precursor to the Mahdi's return. Despite devastating losses to infrastructure and economy, Iran now projects defiance, closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening retaliation, while cracking down brutally on dissent. The U.S. and Israel’s strategy failed to produce regime collapse, and President Trump has acknowledged the new leadership is likely permanent, with no sign of domestic or international accommodation. The episode concludes that the war has made Iran more dangerous, not less, and that the goal of regime change has been reversed into a long-term consolidation of power by the most extreme factions. Key takeaways include: 1) Regime change through targeted assassinations has no historical precedent and often backfires by empowering hardliners; 2) Iran’s leadership is now more ideologically extreme, with figures who believe in apocalyptic war theology; 3) Economic devastation and internal repression are increasing, but so is defiance; 4) The U.S. and Israel must now negotiate with a regime that is more entrenched and less willing to compromise than before; 5) Iran’s leverage over global trade via the Strait of Hormuz has become a new strategic card; 6) The absence of public figures like Mushtaba Khamenei raises questions about leadership continuity and legitimacy; 7) Domestic dissent is being met with lethal force, signaling a crackdown that could fuel future instability; 8) The war has fundamentally altered Iran’s trajectory, making it more isolated and aggressive, not weaker.