How likely is it that hostilities in Ukraine and the Middle East will cease ?

The guest, Scott Lucas, argues that Ukraine is not losing in the war with Russia—despite Russian claims of progress—because it has recently regained territory, disrupted key Russian infrastructure, and exposed Kremlin vulnerabilities. He contends that President Trump’s growing disinterest in Ukraine stems from his aversion to supporting 'losers,' especially as Ukraine’s military resilience undermines Russia’s narrative of dominance. This shift has created space for Europe and Ukraine to take diplomatic and military initiative without U.S. interference. In the Middle East, Lucas explains that a viable Iran deal was nearly reached, offering sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear limits and Strait of Hormuz access, but Trump walked away due to political pressure. The real obstacle now isn’t Iran, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s aggressive expansion into southern Lebanon, which risks derailing any U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Lucas warns that Trump’s personal brand of authoritarianism—marked by slush funds, self-aggrandizement, and legal immunity deals—may not be undone by one scandal, but by a slow erosion of Republican loyalty as economic pain mounts. The episode concludes with a stark rebuttal: Russia is not winning—its economy is shrinking, its military is overstretched, and it’s losing troops at an unsustainable rate, much of them mercenaries.