Untangling the Iran-Russia-Hezbollah web

In this episode of The Times of Israel Daily Briefing, host Amanda Borsaldan is joined by Ksenia Svetlova, expert on Gulf and Russian affairs and CEO of Ropes, to dissect the complex web of geopolitical alliances shaping the Middle East amid ongoing tensions between Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah. The discussion traces the evolution of Russia-Iran relations from Cold War-era suspicion to a strategic partnership forged in mutual necessity—especially after Russia’s isolation following its invasion of Ukraine. While Russia has supplied Iran with weapons and facilitated oil smuggling, Iran remains dissatisfied with Russia’s limited support, particularly in failing to deliver promised stealth fighters. The episode also explores how Russian-made weapons, including drones and anti-aircraft systems, continue to flow into Hezbollah’s arsenal via Syria, despite the collapse of the Damascus corridor. Svetlova argues that while Russia and Iran are allies of convenience, not proxies, their relationship is strained by divergent interests, especially regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The conversation then shifts to the Gulf states, where countries like the UAE have deepened military and diplomatic ties with Israel—including the secret delivery of Iron Dome batteries—while others like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman pursue more cautious, pragmatic approaches, some even considering nuclear deterrence in response to a potential nuclear Iran. The episode concludes with a nuanced assessment of a fragmented regional landscape, where alliances are shifting, and the Middle East is increasingly relying on itself rather than Western powers.