Total Bases | MLB Picks Today: Thursday Betting Breakdown, Odds & Sharp Plays | 4/23
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In this episode of WagerTalk's 'Total Bases,' hosts Tokyo Brandon and Adam break down MLB betting opportunities for Thursday, April 23, 2026, focusing on key matchups including Yankees vs. Red Sox, Nationals vs. Braves, Dodgers vs. Giants, Phillies vs. Cubs, and Rockies vs. Padres. They analyze pitcher performance, team trends, and market inefficiencies, highlighting value in under-the-radar plays like the Rockies' +1.5 run line and the Yankees' first five innings. The hosts emphasize the importance of timing, sample size, and psychological factors in betting, especially with young pitchers like J.R. Ritchie and Cam Schlittler. They also discuss the over/under dynamics at Coors Field and the potential for regression in teams like the Nationals and Phillies. The episode concludes with a two-team parlay recommendation: Rockies +1.5 and Yankees first five innings money line, both tied to their 5% plays.
The Rockies' +1.5 run line has been a high-performing bet this season, especially at Coors Field where pitching struggles are amplified.
Consider the Yankees' first five innings money line due to superior hitting and strong pitching from Cam Schlittler.
The Nationals' team total over is likely inflated due to bookmaker constraints as underdogs, creating a potential edge.
J.R. Ritchie’s debut with the Braves presents a low-risk, high-reward play given the team’s offensive firepower and lack of pressure.
The Dodgers’ team total of 3.5 is too low given their elite lineup, especially after recent games where they were held down by average pitchers.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Intro & Sponsor Tease: Shopify & WagerTalk’s Double Play Special
The episode opens with a promotional segment for Shopify, followed by a warm welcome from hosts Tokyo Brandon and Adam. They highlight their recent success, including hitting a three-team parlay, and promote the double play special—offering three days of full access to both hosts’ picks for a discounted rate.
Yankees vs. Red Sox: First Five Inning Value & Schlittler vs. Tolley
“I think it would be perhaps a good day to take Schlittler for a win and get some plus money there, perhaps?”
Nationals vs. Braves: The Hidden Edge in Nats’ Team Totals
“The thing is when the bookmakers are making numbers, when they make a team an underdog, they can't make their team total higher than the other team because they're the underdog, right?”
Dodgers vs. Giants: Overreaction & Momentum Play
“I still think the giants on the plus one and a half run line have some value. It's only minus 130.”
Phillies vs. Cubs: Betting Against Overrated Teams
“The Phillies right now have a negative 50 run differential. I'm scrolling down quickly. The next closest team is the Kansas City Royals with negative 35.”
“The thing about Coors Field and Mexico, because I do the Mexican League and it's even higher altitude than Colorado. The thing is, your breaking balls don't break.”
“The thing is when the bookmakers are making numbers, when they make a team an underdog, they can't make their team total higher than the other team because they're the underdog, right?”
“The Rockies' +1.5 run line has been printing money just about as often as the Nationals' first five over one and a half.”
Hosts
Tokyo Brandon
person
Adam
person
Yankees
other
WagerTalk
organization
Red Sox
other
Nationals
other
Cam Schlittler
person
Braves
other
Peyton Tolley
person
Dodgers
other
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