Haass on the War in Iran, Iran Oil Fallout, IMF Meeting Anxiety, US-China Rare Earth Competition

The war in Iran has shattered the illusion of stability in the Gulf, exposing deep vulnerabilities in global energy security and exposing the limits of U.S. and Israeli military dominance. Richard Haas, former diplomat and Council on Foreign Relations leader, argues that while the U.S. and Israel won militarily, Iran has gained unprecedented strategic leverage—especially over the Strait of Hormuz—by forcing a geopolitical reckoning. The real threat isn’t just war, but the long-term economic paralysis of the region, with Gulf states like Dubai and Abu Dhabi now facing a crisis of investment confidence. Haas warns that without a new governing authority for the strait—possibly including China and regional powers—the U.S. may have to choose between a blockade or accepting Iran’s de facto control. Meanwhile, Afsaneh Beshalas highlights how oil price volatility and supply constraints are disproportionately hurting poorer nations, pushing them toward food and energy insecurity. As the World Bank and IMF meet in Washington, Chrystia Freeland reveals that finance ministers are gripped by anxiety, not over trade, but over a looming global stagflation crisis fueled by war, depleted fiscal reserves, and a collapse of multilateralism. The U.S. is now playing from behind in the critical minerals race, having ignored rare earths for a decade while China built a near-monopoly.