Hank Paulson on Iran War, Energy Market Disruptions, Copper Supply Strain, US Tax Debate

The war in Iran has triggered a global economic shock with far-reaching consequences, according to former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, who warns that while the U.S. may weather the storm better than others, the real danger lies in a potential global recession if the conflict prolongs. Paulson emphasizes that the U.S. fiscal situation—on track for a $3 trillion deficit by 2035—is unsustainable and threatens national security, calling for urgent tax reform and entitlement changes. He stresses that the U.S. must act before a crisis forces it, noting that Congress only responds when the 'glass is broken.' Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol confirms that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by May, full energy market recovery could take up to two years due to widespread infrastructure damage. The crisis has also exposed the world’s vulnerability to a 50-kilometer chokepoint, while accelerating the race for copper—critical for AI, data centers, and defense. The U.S. is attempting a revival of its copper industry, but with only two smelters left and a 29-year average for new mine development, the supply gap remains dire. Recycling and new projects like Resolution Copper are steps forward, but not enough to close the looming shortfall.