Haviv Rettig Gur: Political footballs and politicians' fumbles

In this deep dive on Israeli politics, host Amanda Borchel-Dahn and senior analyst Haviv Rettigur dissect the formation of a new joint political party by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, dubbed 'Yahad Together.' Framing the discussion as a 'fantasy political football' team, they analyze the complex dynamics shaping Israel's upcoming election—expected by late October—focusing on coalition stability, voter psychology, and the looming influence of demographic shifts. The conversation reveals how political survival in Israel's multi-party system hinges less on popularity and more on fear of electoral collapse, with each coalition partner avoiding internal fractures by maintaining a fragile consensus. Key themes include the erosion of trust in Netanyahu, the strategic importance of the Haredi draft issue, the tribal nature of Israeli voting, and the potential for young voters and disaffected Likudniks to shift the balance. Rettigur emphasizes that while polls are unreliable, the real battleground is not policy but perception, identity, and tribal loyalty, with Bennett’s betrayal of his base and Lapid’s willingness to accept second place becoming central narrative threads. The episode also explores the deeper structural challenges facing Israeli democracy: the unsustainable growth of the Haredi population, the inefficiency of the welfare state, and the failure of institutions like education and transportation to respond to crises. Rettigur argues that the Bennett-Lapid coalition’s campaign will center on incompetence and moral failure, contrasting it with Netanyahu’s narrative of security strength. Meanwhile, the fate of figures like Gadi Eisenkot and Yuli Edelstein remains uncertain, as internal Likud dissent grows over the Haredi draft and the party’s inability to deliver on key promises. Ultimately, the election may hinge not on policy platforms, but on who voters feel they can trust in a time of existential crisis—making tribal identity, not ideology, the true deciding factor.