How Trump increased China's global power

In this episode of Fresh Air, host Dave Davies speaks with Rush Doshi, a China expert and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, about the implications of President Donald Trump's summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Doshi argues that Trump's 2025 trade war, particularly the imposition of tariffs as high as 140%, inadvertently empowered China to assert unprecedented geopolitical leverage by threatening to restrict access to rare earth minerals—critical for global manufacturing and largely controlled by China. When Trump backed down due to pressure from U.S. auto companies, China demonstrated its ability to force the U.S. to open its markets, marking a pivotal moment in which China emerged as America's true peer in global power. Doshi warns that this dynamic sets the stage for a 'second China shock,' where high-end American industries—like electric vehicles and biotechnology—could be displaced by Chinese exports, undermining U.S. economic and national security. The episode also explores China's mercantilist economic strategy, its ambitions in AI and technology, and the deepening strategic competition over Taiwan, where China is preparing for a potential military action by 2027. Despite U.S. efforts to maintain alliances and impose export controls on advanced chips, Doshi emphasizes that the U.S. must re-engage with its partners to counter China’s growing dominance, as no middle-power coalition alone can match China’s scale in manufacturing and supply chains. Key takeaways include: 1) China’s rare earth leverage in 2025 was a turning point that shifted the balance of power; 2) The U.S. must move beyond transactional diplomacy and address structural economic imbalances with China; 3) Taiwan remains the most sensitive issue, with China seeking to reshape U.S. policy and reduce American arms sales; 4) The U.S. cannot afford to act alone—rebuilding alliances is essential to counter China’s economic and military rise; 5) AI and semiconductor dominance are central to future global power, and the U.S. must protect its lead while avoiding over-reliance on foreign manufacturing, especially in Taiwan. The overall tone is cautionary and urgent, reflecting a deep concern about the long-term consequences of U.S. strategic miscalculations, but also a belief in the possibility of a coordinated, resilient response.