The Arab Gulf States in the Line of Fire

The war in Iran has exposed deep fractures among the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, revealing not a unified bloc but three distinct strategic camps: Saudi Arabia and Qatar pushing for mediation and stability, the UAE adopting a hawkish stance toward Iran and deepening ties with Israel, and Oman taking a critical, independent position that drew ire from U.S. officials. Andrew Lieber, a Middle East scholar, debunks the myth that Saudi Arabia secretly wanted the war, arguing instead that Riyadh prioritizes regional stability to attract foreign investment and avoid domestic unrest. The war has intensified divisions over Israel, with Saudi Arabia now viewing Israel as an unreliable partner after its failure to protect Gulf allies from Iranian attacks—undermining the value of the Abraham Accords. Meanwhile, the UAE continues to strengthen its security alliance with Israel despite growing backlash against Netanyahu’s policies. Crucially, Lieber highlights that the Palestinian issue remains a potent domestic political tool across the Gulf, especially in Saudi Arabia, where suppressed solidarity with Palestine has resurged among younger generations. The war has accelerated a long-term shift: Gulf states are no longer just hedging between the U.S. and China, but actively building new regional partnerships with Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan—seeking security and economic influence without relying on Washington. The episode concludes with a stark warning: the U.S.