“You Don’t Sell Blow-offs” | Andrew Perry on Bullish Technicals of U.S. Stock Market, “Dangerous” Period for Global Equities, and Bull Case for Agricultural Commodities

The U.S. stock market is in a dangerous, momentum-driven 'blow-off' phase, according to macro trader Andrew Perry, who warns that the rally—fueled by AI capital expenditure and exceptional liquidity management—may not be sustainable. Despite technical indicators pointing to a bullish S&P 500 target of 7,700–7,800, Perry argues that the market’s strength is concentrated in tech and semiconductors, not broad-based economic health. He cautions against outright long positions, advocating instead for relative value pair trades—long U.S. equities against short Australian and European stocks—due to energy dependency and fiscal stress in those regions. Perry’s five-pillar framework, centered on liquidity, technicals, yield curves, and event-driven dates like the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA), reveals that current liquidity is not abundant but strategically managed, particularly through Treasury buybacks and Fed reserve operations. He highlights a critical dislocation: agricultural commodities (corn, wheat, soybeans) are underperforming energy but are structurally vulnerable to fertilizer and diesel shocks, making them a compelling long relative to stressed equity markets. The real danger, Perry warns, lies not in a lack of liquidity but in its narrow distribution—when the next shock hits, the market’s fragility will be exposed.