What’s behind the resurgence in inter-state conflict?

The number of interstate conflicts worldwide has doubled to eight in 2025—the highest level since the end of the Second World War—according to a new report from the Peace Research Institute Oslo. Sirias Rustad, the report’s lead author, explains that these conflicts are not only more frequent but increasingly interconnected, with border disputes, invasions like Israel’s incursion into Syria, and regional escalations in the Middle East driving the trend. A key factor, Rustad argues, is the collapse of global multilateral trust: the UN Security Council is stalled, trade is unpredictable, and states feel they must attack first to defend themselves. This growing insecurity is mirrored in Europe, where a new survey reveals only one in ten Europeans now view the U.S. as an ally—a crisis of confidence fueled by U.S. foreign policy shifts under Trump and a growing European realization that American security guarantees may no longer be reliable. Yet despite this, most Europeans still don’t feel directly threatened, leading to a paradox: they agree on the need for greater European defense autonomy, but resist cutting domestic spending to fund it. Meanwhile, the Baltic states are forging ahead with a pan-Baltic capital markets union to overcome their small size and boost financial resilience—offering a model of regional cooperation that could inspire broader EU integration.