The Iranian Regime Isn't Going Anywhere

The Iranian regime is not going anywhere—despite years of U.S. pressure, military strikes, and even regime-change ambitions, Iran remains resilient, entrenched, and strategically adaptive. In a candid conversation with Elliot Cohen, Middle East Institute expert Kenneth Pollack argues that the current conflict is not a war of conquest but a 'hurting stalemate,' where both sides are inflicting and enduring pain without either achieving decisive victory. Pollack dismantles the myth that bombing alone can topple the regime, pointing out that Iran’s leadership, hardened by decades of enmity with the West, has long prepared for such scenarios—including shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. The real danger, he warns, isn’t military defeat but the political and economic fallout: Gulf states, desperate for stability, may pay Iran tens of billions to keep shipping flowing, effectively subsidizing the very regime they oppose. This creates a perverse incentive structure where Iran rebuilds its military capacity with foreign cash. Pollack also reveals a deeper strategic failure: the U.S. has repeatedly misjudged Iran’s psychology, underestimating its capacity for endurance and overestimating the likelihood of popular uprising. Even if the war ends in a ceasefire, the long-term implications are dire: Gulf states are losing faith in American reliability, China is being eyed as a potential alternative—even if it’s not yet viable—and the U.S. is becoming the 'rogue power' in the region.