The Never-ending Iran Negotiations

The Bulwark19mJune 1, 2026
AI-Generated Summary

The U.S. and Iran remain locked in a high-stakes diplomatic standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides refusing to sign a ceasefire MOU despite two hours of negotiations. Eric Edelman and Elliot Cohen dissect the stalled talks, arguing that neither side truly wants to be the first to commit—each believes they hold the upper hand. Cohen contends Trump is not weak-willed but strategically hesitant, while Edelman warns that the president’s repeated threats have hardened Iran’s position, turning economic pressure into a de facto toll system. The hosts predict that even if Iran agrees not to charge fees now, they’ll impose them once U.S. forces withdraw, trapping America in a permanent military presence. They also critique the media’s use of the term 'quagmire,' calling it reductive and rooted in 24/7 commentary fatigue. The episode ends with a grim forecast: this isn’t a war ending, but a new phase in a decades-long conflict that will demand sustained American military and political commitment.

Key Takeaways
1

Iran is using economic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as a de facto toll system, which will likely persist even if formal fees are suspended.

2

Trump’s repeated threats have hardened Iran’s stance, making compromise more difficult and prolonging the conflict.

3

The U.S. may be forced into a permanent military presence in the Middle East, undermining global force mobility.

4

The term 'quagmire' is misleading—this is not a standalone war but a phase in a 50-year conflict with deep strategic roots.

5

Iran’s Supreme Leader and Trump both believe they have the upper hand, creating a deadlock where neither side wants to be the first to sign.

…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus

Chapters
0:00
2 min

Opening: The Strait of Hormuz Stalemate

I have a very bad feeling that when this is all over, you're going to see a lot of environmental fees being charged to ships transiting the strait.

Highlight
1:53
3 min

Historical Reflections: Benedict Arnold and Fort Ticonderoga

Elliot Cohen shares a personal visit to Fort Ticonderoga, reflecting on Benedict Arnold’s complex legacy and drawing parallels to modern political figures.

4:26
3 min

Political Satire: Trump’s $250 Bill and the Totenkopf Tattoo

The hosts mock Trump’s proposed $250 bill and praise Congressman Jake Auchincloss for opposing a candidate with a Nazi tattoo, highlighting courage in political opposition.

7:21
4 min

The Iran MOU Deadlock: No Decision, No Smoke

The two sides are profoundly far apart. And I don't know about you, but I don't see a compromise here that can bring this thing to an end.

Highlight
11:04
3 min

Power Play: Who Holds the Upper Hand?

I think the Iranians think they have us by the throat and I think Trump... thinks he has them by the throat.

Highlight
High-Impact Quotes
I have a very bad feeling that when this is all over, you're going to see a lot of environmental fees being charged to ships transiting the strait.
Eric Edelman0:00
I think the Iranians think they have us by the throat and I think Trump... thinks he has them by the throat.
Elliot Cohen11:16
And the two sides are profoundly far apart. And I don't know about you, but I don't see a compromise here that can bring this thing to an end.
Elliot Cohen11:03
Speakers

Hosts

Eric EdelmanElliot Cohen
Topics Discussed
iran nuclear negotiations95%strait of hormuz blockade90%u.s.-iran relations88%military presence in middle east85%diplomatic stalemate80%media narrative critique75%trump foreign policy70%geopolitical leverage65%
People & Brands

elliot cohen

person

15xNeutral

eric edelman

person

12xNeutral

donald trump

person

10xNegative

strait of hormuz

place

7xNeutral

fort ticonderoga

place

4xPositive

jake auchincloss

person

4xPositive

benedict arnold

person

3xNeutral

supreme leader khamenei

person

3xNeutral

u.s. currency

other

2xNeutral

gerrymander

other

1xNegative

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