Lawfare Archive: A Victory for Guatemalan Democracy

In a dramatic reversal of decades of democratic erosion, Guatemala’s newly inaugurated President Bernardo Arevalo took office on January 15, 2024, after a months-long battle against a coordinated legal and institutional campaign to block his rise. The episode recounts how Arevalo, a sociologist and anti-corruption reformer running on the Movimiento Semilla platform, won a landslide victory in August 2023—only to face relentless efforts by Guatemala’s entrenched political elite, judiciary, and prosecutor’s office to undermine his legitimacy. Courts suspended his party, raided the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, and attempted to strip him of political immunity, all under the guise of legal scrutiny. Yet, despite these maneuvers, a historic 105-day national strike led by indigenous communities forced the state to uphold the election results. The international community—including the U.S., EU, and OAS—played a pivotal role, imposing sanctions and diplomatic pressure that helped preserve the democratic transition. The episode frames this as a modern 'lawfare coup'—a non-violent, institutionalized assault on democracy that mirrors but differs from the violent insurrections seen in the U.S. on January 6 and Brazil on January 8. As Arevalo now faces a fractured Congress and a defiant Attorney General, the future of Guatemalan democracy hinges not just on his leadership, but on whether the international alliance that defended it can endure beyond the current U.S.