Americano: the 2026 midterms, immigration & the Democrats

Introduction and 10th Anniversary of The Americano Show

Freddie Gray welcomes listeners to the 10th anniversary episode of The Americano Show, introducing the guest, James Johnson of JLP Partners, and setting the stage for a deep dive into the 2026 midterms.

California’s Jungle Primaries: A Red Spark in a Blue State

The episode examines the surprising Republican performances in California’s governor and LA mayor races, with Steve Hilton and Spencer Pratt advancing to the general election. Johnson notes the excitement but cautions that California’s Democratic dominance makes a Republican win unlikely.

The Midterm Turnout Problem: Trump’s Base Isn’t Showing Up

Johnson explains that Trump’s 2024 victory relied on low-propensity voters who rarely vote in midterms. Despite loyalty, they’re not turning out, while Democrats are highly energized—creating a turnout gap that hurts Republicans.

The Texas Senate Pivot: A Democratic Path to Power

Despite Texas’s red image, Johnson argues it’s the most viable Democratic pickup in the Senate due to its ethnic diversity and Republican voter disengagement. The race hinges on whether Democratic Hispanics turn out while Republican Hispanics don’t.

The Iran War: A Political Liability for Republicans

Polling shows a majority of Americans now believe the Iran war was a mistake. Even among Trump voters, support has dropped from 90% to 60%, with 25% now critical—marking a major shift in public sentiment.